EUROPEAN UNION
Ireland endorses Lisbon treaty
On October 3, 2009, Irish voters strongly endorsed the European Union's Lisbon Treaty-16 months after their first vote rejecting it plunged EU reforms into deadlock.
About 67% voted "Yes". Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen hailed a "clear and resounding" endorsement. Political leaders across the EU have also welcomed the result. The President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, said it was a great day for Europe. He urged the leaders of Poland and the Czech Republic-the only other countries yet to ratify Lisbon Treaty-to sign the treaty as soon as possible.
The treaty-which is aimed at streamlining decision-making in the 27-nation bloc-cannot take effect until all 27 member States ratify it.
Ireland was the only EU member State to hold a referendum on Lisbon Treaty, though there have been calls for referendums in several countries.
Irish opinion is thought to have swung behind the "Yes" vote this time because of the severity of the economic downturn, as well as the legal "guarantees" on Irish sovereignty that the EU pledged after the first referendum.
The legally binding "guarantees" state that Lisbon Treaty will not affect key areas of Irish sovereignty, such as taxation, military neutrality and family matters such as abortion-significant issues in 2008's campaign in Ireland. But they have not yet been attached to the treaty.
The treaty is intended to make EU institutions better suited to the enlarged bloc of 27. But opponents see it as part of a federalist agenda that threatens national sovereignty.
PAKISTAN
Multi-terror attacks on cops, 40 dead
Teams of terrorists unleashed attacks on three law enforcement facilities in Lahore on October 15, 2009, even as car bombs exploded in two cities near the Afghan border, killing 39 persons in an escalating wave of anti-government violence in Pakistan.
No group claimed responsibility, though suspicion fell on Pakistan’s umbrella Tehreek-e-Taliban movement, Al Qaeda and home-grown Islamist groups Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and Jaish-e-Muhammad.
The co-ordinated assaults underscored the power of armed radicals to strike in the heart of Pakistan, and the weakness of poorly equipped security forces, despite promises of a new offensive against the Taliban. Nuclear-armed Pakistan, a key ally in the US-led fight against terrorism, is reeling from two years of Taliban-linked attacks that have escalated such that over 160 people have been killed since October 5. Pakistan's weak civilian government said the country faced a new war after the slew of militant attacks away from the insurgent hotbed of the north-west tribal region.
WORLD ECONOMY
Human Development Index
While China figures among the only five countries across the world that improved their Human Development Index (HDI) rankings, 2009, by three or more points, India continues to cut a sorry figure, slipping six points (from the last compilation) in the latest UNDP Human Development Index. Overall, however, India made progress on HDI, improving its value from 0.556 in 2000 to 0.612 in 2007.
As against a standing of 128 in the 2008 UN Human Development Report, India has been ranked 134th among the 182 nations surveyed. The slip represents poor progress on some indicators of people’s well-being, including life expectancy, literacy, school enrolment and GDP per capita.
In China (ranked 92), along with Colombia, France, Peru and Venezuela, which improved their rankings by at least three points, the fillip has been attributed to increase in incomes and life expectancy. China, Colombia and Venezuela’s progress has also been driven by improvement in education. The report concludes that disparities in life expectancy in the world can range up to 30 years. Despite progress in the last 25 years, disparities in people’s well-being in rich and poor countries continue to be unacceptably wide.
2009 report represents the most extensive coverage ever of 182 countries. As for rankings, the top three ranked countries in the HDI are: Norway, Australia and Iceland. France rejoined the top 10 countries after dropping down for one year, while Luxembourg fell from the top 10.
US exits recession
The world's largest economy, USA, has climbed out of recession as it grew by 3.5 per cent in the third quarter ending September 30, 2009, the first quarterly expansion in a year, thanks to higher consumer and government spending among others.
The economy, which was battered by the worst financial turmoil since the 1930s Great Depression, expanded last in the second quarter of 2008, when GDP rose 1.5 per cent.
The advanced estimates from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that American GDP expanded 3.5 per cent in the third quarter.
Consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the GDP, grew 3.4 per cent in the quarter under review, compared to 0.9 per cent fall in the previous quarter.
USA is the latest advanced economy to shrug off recession and joins the likes of Germany, France, Japan and Singapore. However, the country would be officially out of recession only after the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares so. A country is said to be in recession if its economy contracts for two straight quarters.
The third quarter growth was primarily due to rising personal consumption expenditures (PCE), higher federal government spending and exports.
One of the main factors for the upturn in economic activities in the third quarter is the government's 'Cash for Clunkers' programme for the auto industry, which resulted in increased car sales. The initiative which ended in August had offered rebate of about $4,500 for consumers to purchase new cars and sell their old models.
ENVIRONMENT
UN climate talks end without any consensus
As the Bangkok round of talks on climate change in October 2009 came to an end, the rift between the developed and developing countries appeared to have deepened and widened. The developed countries would like to abandon the Kyoto Protocol, in favour of a new agreement, while the developing countries would like an extension of the Protocol. There has been virtually no progress on the issue of finance and mid-term emission reduction targets for industrialised countries.
Developing countries have opposed scrapping the Kyoto Protocol as it clearly places an obligation on developed world to deepen emission cuts and to provide finance to help developing countries to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The United States and Australia were among the 42 countries that sought to junk the Protocol. They argued that the world had changed since the 1990s, and keeping in mind the ground realities a new agreement needs to be crafted. This agreement would require all countries to take on emission cuts. This move was resisted at Bangkok, with the developing countries under the G-77 umbrella argued that such a proposal would violate the Kyoto Protocol and the Bali Action Plan.
The bright spot in Bangkok was the unveiling of an aggressive emission reduction plan by Norway. The Scandinavian country had previously committed unconditionally to slashing emissions 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Its new pledge is to cut greenhouse gas output by 40 per cent if an international agreement is reached in Copenhagen in December 2009.
Lawmakers join hands to fast-track carbon cut
The time to act is now, whether or not there is an international consensus on climate change at the UN Copenhagen talks in December, say the 100-odd legislators from major economies representing major political parties—including US, UK, France, China, Brazil, Mexico and India.
The lawmakers converged at the Danish capital at a GLOBE International and COM+ meeting held over two days from October 24-25, 2009 at the Folketing, the Danish Parliament, in preparation to the UNFCCC meeting in December that is expected to find an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol that is to conclude in 2012.
The legislators have signed key guiding principles set out by Chinese Congressman Wang Guangtao, chairman of the steering committee on environment and resources protection, National People’s Conference, China and US Congressman Edward Markey to enable enacting of climate change laws in their respective countries.
The Wang-Markey principles outline energy standards, forestry preservation, and renewable energy that could see 70% of the emissions cuts needed by 2020 if the global average temperature rise is to be limited to 2°C.
They include standardized action on building and appliance standards; renewable energy; vehicle fuel and efficiency standards; and forestry. Such coordinated action—especially in areas like domestic, transportation and industrial energy efficiency—will result in cost savings and more competitiveness.
The overriding theme has been to stress the need to accelerate domestic legislation that bind national governments to short, medium and long-term targets for emissions; a commitment to "climate compatibility assessments" for major government policies; a duty on governments to report to parliament regularly on their progress in meeting targets; and a commitment to a regular review to ensure that policies are consistent with the latest science.
India joins rich nations to protect forests
India, along with five other developing countries, has joined a group of five rich nations to work on a $350-million project to fight climate change through forest management.
The six developing nations, which also include Brazil, Congo, Morocco, Nepal and Romania, have joined the group of five contributing countries-the US, Australia, Britain, Denmark and Norway-under the governing body of the Forest Investment Programme (FIP).
The FIP Trust Fund Sub-Committee met in Washington for the first time on October 29, 2009, to begin implementation of the Program, including consideration of criteria for how to select pilot countries and regions.
The FIP governance structure is among the first in a new generation of partnerships among developing and developed countries and other stakeholders which takes account of the need for a level playing field in addressing climate action.
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
RIC meeting in New Delhi
Global terrorism with special focus on Afghanistan dominated the ninth trilateral meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia, India and China (RIC) that concluded in Bangalore on October 27, 2009.
The ministers emphasised the need for the three countries to assist Afghanistan in fighting terrorism, ensuring security, restoring peace and stability and building a democratic and pluralistic Afghanistan.
The meeting was held in the backdrop of two significant bilateral issues—meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and China’s Premier Wen Jiabao at Hua Hin, Thailand and trade, economy, scientific and climate meeting with Russia in Moscow on October 21—and resolved to jointly fight terrorism and narcotic trafficking with mention also being made on diplomatic settlement of Iran nuclear issue and denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
The demand for a greater role for India in the United Nation affairs has gained momentum once again. Russia and China made a strong bid for India’s status in international affairs be accorded importance. "There is a need for a comprehensive reform of the United Nations with a view to make it more efficient so that it can deal with the current global challenges more effectively. Russia and China attach importance to the status of India in international affairs. We urge the world communities to understand and support India’s aspirations to play a greater role in the United Nations," Russian and China’s foreign ministers Sergei Lavrov and Yang Jie Chie, jointly stated.
Obama signs into law Pak Aid Bill
US President Barack Obama has signed into law legislation that will provide $7.5 billion in US aid to Pakistan over the next five years.
"This law is the tangible manifestation of broad support for Pakistan in the US, as evidenced by its bipartisan, bicameral, unanimous passage in Congress," the White House said in a statement.
Obama signed the legislation after hectic jockeying by Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to secure assurances from Congress that the Bill does not trample on Pakistan's sovereignty.
The United States Congress sought to allay Pakistani concerns. Lawmakers released an explanatory statement assuring critics of the legislation that the Bill in no way impinges on Pakistani sovereignty.
"This Act formalises that partnership, based on a shared commitment to improving the living conditions of the people of Pakistan through sustainable economic development, strengthening democracy and the rule of law, and combating the extremism that threatens Pakistan and the United States," the White House statement said.
Sen John Kerry, a co-author of the legislation, said the statement was issued "to set the record straight". He emphasised that the legislation in no way sought to “compromise Pakistan's sovereignty, impinge on Pakistan's national security interests, or micromanage any aspect of Pakistani military or civilian operations". House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Howard Berman, an author of the legislation, said the statement was "a reflection of our desire to be long-term partners with the Pakistani people".
Visit of Chinese PM to N-Korea
North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-il made a rare appearance to personally greet visiting Chinese premier Wen Jiabao at the start of a trip to North Korea in the month of October 2009.
Kim Jong-il’s unusual outing followed by Wen’s talks with the premier was a show of how serious North Korea is about shoring up ties with Beijing, which gives its poor neighbour crucial economic help and diplomatic backing.
Kim Jong-il is widely believed to have suffered a serious illness in 2008, and it is rare for him to personally greet an arriving visitor. Even audiences are uncommon.
North Korea told Jiabao that it was open to bilateral and multilateral talks on its nuclear programmes. The comments appeared to be the latest indication of Pyongyang’s apparent willingness to return to six-nation disarmament talks that it broke off in early 2009.
China termed Wen’s visit a "goodwill" trip to mark the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations, but nuclear issues figured to be high on the agenda.
Hillary Clinton's visit to Pakistan
Stating that Pakistan was at a "critical point" of history, the US has offered to stand soldier-to-soldier with the country in its fight against "tenacious and brutal terror groups". "This is not Pakistan's fight alone," US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said during her visit to the country in October 2009.
During her maiden visit to Pakistan after assuming office, Clinton met President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani.
She refused to be drawn into the debate on whether there are "good Taliban" and made no reference to contentious issues like differences between the US and Pakistan on conditions attached to economic aid.
SUMMITS
ASEAN Summit
The 15th ASEAN Summit and the related summits, including the 12th ASEAN-China Summit, the 12th ASEAN-Japan Summit, the 12th ASEAN-Republic of Korea Summit, the Seventh ASEAN-India Summit, the 12th ASEAN Plus Three Summit and the Fourth East Asia Summit, were held on October 23-25, 2009 in Cha-am Hua Hin, Thailand. ASEAN Leaders discussed among themselves and with relevant Dialogue Partners on how to realise an ASEAN Community by 2015.
Highlights for the Summits include the inauguration of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights, the adoption of a declaration on climate change to reaffirm ASEAN position in the negotiation under the UN Frameworks Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), as well as the adoption of a declaration on education cooperation to achieve an ASEAN Community. Other issues affecting the well-being of the peoples, including food and energy security, financial stability, pandemics as well as disaster management, were also discussed.
During the Summits, ASEAN Leaders also met with representatives from the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly (AIPA), ASEAN Youth and ASEAN Civil Society Organisations which reflected Thailand’s will to promote people’s participation in ASEAN Community-building process.
The 15th ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) Summit and the related summits were concluded Sunday afternoon, with a series of documents being adopted by the participating national leaders.
Key documents, such as the Cha-am Hua Hin Declaration on the Inauguration of the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR), Cha-am Hua Hin Declaration on Strengthening Cooperation on Education to Achieve an ASEAN Caring and Sharing Community, Draft ASEAN Joint Statement on Climate Change, and ASEAN Leaders' Statement on ASEAN Connectivity were adopted by ASEAN leaders and other participating national leaders.
The next ASEAN summit and related summits will be held in Vietnam.
East Asia Summit
The Fourth East Asia Summit was rescheduled several times, had its venue changed and one attempt to hold it was cancelled due to the 2008–2009 Thai political crisis. It was ultimately held on October 25, 2009 in Cha-am and Hua Hin, Thailand. ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia, and New Zealand attended the Summit.
The Summit adopted two documents. The first was a statement on disaster management. The second related to the re-establishment of Nalanda University by India.
The Chairman's Statement noted: We acknowledged the importance of regional discussions to examine ways to advance the stability and prosperity of the Asia Pacific region. In this connection, we noted with appreciation the following:
(a) the Philippines’s proposal to invite the heads of other regional fora and organizations in Asia-Pacific to future EAS meetings to discuss measures that will protect the region from future economic and financial crisis and strengthen Asia economic cooperation, including through the possible establishment of an economic community of Asia.
(b) Japan’s new proposal to reinvigorate the discussion towards building, in the long run, an East Asian community based on the principle of openness, transparency and inclusiveness and functional cooperation.
(c) Australia’s proposal on the Asia Pacific community in which ASEAN will be at its core, will be further discussed at a 1.5 track conference to be organized by Australia in December 2009.
The East Asia Summit is a forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues of common interest and concern with the aim of promoting peace, stability and economic prosperity in East Asia. It is an open, inclusive, transparent and outward-looking forum, which strives to strengthen global norms and universally recognised values with ASEAN as the driving force working in partnership with the other participants of the East Asia Summit.
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM
Pak’s Saeed farce continues
Hafiz Saeed, who has shown to be the mastermind behind the 26/11 terror assault on Mumbai, has been allowed to go scot-free yet again. In a development which lays bare Pakistan’s game of deceit in acting against perpetrators of the attack, the Lahore High Court, in October 2009, dismissed two cases registered against him on the ground that the Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the organisation headed by him, was not 'proscribed' in Pakistan. JuD is the new avatar of the banned Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Describing the case against Saeed as arising out of a 'mala fide intention' by the Punjab provincial government, the court quashed the cases, which were registered at police stations in Faisalabad for allegedly inciting people to wage 'jihad' (holy war) against 'infidels'.
The first FIR was based on his preaching session at Royalton Hotel in Faisalabad’s Canal Road on August 27, 2009, in which Saeed urged people to retaliate against those who’ve suppressed their rights. He explained away the problems of the American economy as God’s way of retaliation.
The second FIR was lodged over his speech at an Iftar dinner at Peoples Colony, Jaranwala Road Faisalabad on August 26. In this tirade, Saeed accused India of stage-managing the 26/11 attacks and conspiring against Pakistan—a clear attempt to invoke anti-India sentiments.
Car Bomb Targets India’s Kabul Mission
In yet another reminder of the desperation of terror groups and their sponsors to get India out of Afghanistan, Taliban terrorists executed a suicide car bomb attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul on October 8, 2009, killing 12 people and injuring more than 80 others. The attack came 15 months after the deadly strike near the embassy in 2008, which left more than 60 dead, including an IFS officer and the Indian defence attache.
The damage could have been much more but for the security arrangements put in place after 2008’s attack that was traced to ISI-affiliate Sirajuddin Haqqani.
Taliban spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid took responsibility for the attack. In a statement posted on a website, he claimed the attacker was an Afghan who blew up his SUV stuffed with explosives outside the embassy. Indian security agencies, however, said this could be a smokescreen to keep the ISI out of scrutiny.
Clearly suggesting a Pakistani link to the suicide bomb attack, India said the terrorist act was the handiwork of forces which had their patrons residing across the border. Undeterred by the suicide attack, India also reiterated its "unwavering commitment" to the reconstruction of Afghanistan and its assistance to the Afghan people "in realising a democratic, peaceful and prosperous" country.
Top military brass among 50 killed in Iran suicide blast
A suicide bomber killed seven commanders of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards and up to 42 others on October 17, 2009, in an attack that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad charged had been plotted from neighbouring Pakistan.
The foreign ministry of Iran called in Pakistan’s charge d’affaires over the bombing, which targeted one of the Islamic republic’s most prestigious institutions in a region that has been a hotbed of Sunni insurgency against the Shi’ite Muslim regime.
Several tribal leaders in the majority ethnic Baloch Sistan-Baluchestan province also died in the bombing which left many others wounded.
The chief prosecutor in Sistan-Baluchestan, Mohammad Marziah, said Abdolmalek Rigi, the head of the shadowy Sunni rebel group, Jundallah (Soldiers of God) had "accepted the responsibility" for the attack.
The Iranian president hit out at Pakistan over the bombing, accusing it of sheltering Jundallah militants.
The Revolutionary Guards accused the United States of involvement. "Surely foreign elements, particularly those linked to the global arrogance, were involved in this attack," a Guards statement quoted by television said. Iran often uses the term "global arrogance" to refer to the United States, its old foe.
FBI foils LeT plan to attack India
Pakistan-based terror group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), blamed for the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attack, was planning to use an American national to carry out another major terrorist attack in India, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) of USA.
The man, identified as David Coleman Headley, was arrested in early October 2009, by FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force at O’Hare International Airport.
Headley, 49, along with a Canadian citizen of Pakistani origin, Tahawwur Hussain Rana, have been arrested on charges of plotting a terror attack against the facilities and employees of a Danish newspaper which had published cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed in 2005.
Rana is the owner of several businesses, including First World Immigration Services, which has offices on Devon Avenue in Chicago, as well as in New York and Toronto.
According to the FBI affidavit filed in a Chicago court, Headley was in close contact with Ilyas Kashmiri and several unidentified leaders of LeT.
Kashmiri is the operational chief of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir section of Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI), a Pakistani-based terrorist organisation with links to Al-Qaida.
WORLD TRADE
SAARC Ministers promise to free services sector
Trade Ministers from SAARC countries have decided to fast-track negotiations on liberalising the services market within the region, a move that will enable freer movement of people within the region and give a boost to investments in areas like tourism, financial services and telecom.
Services could be incorporated into the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) soon.
SAARC Ministers, who met in Kathmandu in October 2009, also decided to work on reducing the negative list of items that are not covered under SAFTA to make the free trade agreement more "meaningful". SAFTA is an agreement for elimination of tariffs on goods traded within the SAARC region, and was signed in January 2004.
Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma pointed out that India had unilaterally reduced its negative list for LDCs in the SAARC region, from 744 items to below 500 items. "We are also working towards reduction on negative list with reference to non-LDCs of SAARC (which include Pakistan and Sri Lanka)," the Minister said. The minister urged the non-LDC members to consider reviewing their respective negative lists in respect of both LDCs and non-LDCs, so that intra-SAARC trade could be further expanded.
Interestingly, Pakistan continues to trade with India based on a positive list of items it allows from India. The SAFTA, however, requires all members to trade with each other on the basis of a negative list, which means that all goods would be allowed to be traded except the ones included in the negative list.
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